"If the Third Industrial Revolution is not a realistic forecast, perhaps it is the fate of all intelligent, self-aware species in the universe to blaze like a supernova for one brief instant of climactic glory before sinking into a final nuclear dark age. But I don't think so. I prefer to believe that there is more to the human race than that. We have come far. There are those among us who will not be daunted or denied a better future or an ultimate destiny among the stars. Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote in Politics, 'We think our civilization near the meridian, but we are yet only at the cock-crowing and the morning star.'" ~ G. Harry Stine, The Third Industrial Revolution, 1975 (1)
"Every civilization [in the universe] must go through this [a nuclear crisis]. Those that don't make it destroy themselves. Those that do make it end up cavorting all over the universe." ~ Physicist Ted Taylor, quoted by John McPhee in The Curve of Binding Energy, 1974 (2)
Recently, I got the most recent edition of the Defuse the Nuclear Risk newsletter and I thought of those two quotes. The newsletter pointed out that
“Recent headlines herald a new era in Russian-American relations as Presidents Obama and Medvedev call for new cuts in nuclear arsenals. Sen. Richard Lugar, an Indiana Republican and long-time arms control advocate, calls the developments "truly remarkable." While optimism is warranted, a gathering, but as yet unseen, cloud demands our attention if this ray of hope is to broaden into a new day where humanity is truly free of the nuclear menace”(3)
In the newsletter, there is a link to an article called Soaring, Cryptography and Nuclear Weapons. By becoming friendlier with Russia, we are increasing the distance between our position on the nuclear extinction event tree and nuclear extinction. This is a remarkable first step because we are taking action to minimize the chance of a nuclear conflict, since, with each step back on the event tree, we reduce the likelihood of nuclear war.
An event tree is a tree of the events that must take place before a catastrophic disaster can take place (4). For example, in the event tree for a house fire from a candle, the steps are:
Candles are available (If yes, continue to next step. If no, The house can not burn down from a candle)
A need for candles presents it's self (Example: Lights go out) (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)
The house occupant chooses to use candles to address that need (Example: Using candles instead of flash lights) (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)
Something to light candles is available (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)
The candles are lit. (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)
The candles are placed near a flammable surface on an unsteady surface. (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)
Occupants or house animals are allowed to walk past the candle. (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)
The candle is knocked over. (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)
On so on till all those small events have proceeded to a burning house. What a friendlier relationship does is push us closer to the start point (complete peace with no tensions) and away from the end of the event tree (nuclear war). What is also does is move us past one of the nodes on the event tree that would lead to humanity not habitating space (Nuclear extinction). So, the less the political tensions are the more chance we have to become a spacefaring species.
Sources:
(1) and (2): Engdahl, Sylvia. Space Quotes. October 30, 2006. Lifeboat Society. April 4, 2009
(3): Hellman, Martin. "[NuclearRisk] email #12: Hope and realism" E-mail Newsletter. April 2, 2009
(4): Hellman, Martin. Soaring, Cryptography and Nuclear Weapons. October 21, 2008. Defusing the Nuclear Threat. April 4, 2009
