Evangelical space cadets, like me, should not be catered to. I had this idea after reading two of Seth Godin's blog posts: The paradox of the middle of the market and Fast in, fast out. Basically, people like me are not the market we have to convince to get space habitation off the ground. It is easy to get people like me excited about any idea in space. Yet, we need to average Joe to be excited about commercial space. But, there is also a bigger problem. I fear people like me will not be in the movement when the idea is less new.
Gone After The First Settlement
For this movement to live off evangelical space cadets, we will need about 10 generations of evangelical space cadets. This generation of evangelical space cadets is locked in for life, but that may be because we will not live to see humanity bask in the light of another star. I fear people like me will not exist when interstellar space flight is common and rocket launches are unimpressive. When the space field falls away from the cutting edge; when space stops being a symbol of the future; when this dream is achieved, then the space movement will loss it's current supporters if the evangelical space cadet supports the space movement because it's a dream and it's a new idea.
After reading Seth Godin's posts, I thought about why I'm in the field; why I have a passion for space. I watched a rocket launch on TV and was forever inspired by it. But, I don't think I would be in this field if I saw a rocket launch everyday. I was impressed by NASA and other space agencies. I think they are legendary. But, I don't think I would be found in the space field in the world of Star Trek, were space flight is average. In the world of Star Trek, I think I would be blogging about another, far off, dream.
Replacing The Cadets
This is a graph of percent of each group active in the space movement, verses number of generations. I think such a graph will look like this. Right now, generation number two is taking over the space movement. The type of people who could be evangelical space cadets will not become a space cadet in the space movement as we accomplish this dream. We can not assume the evangelical space cadet will be active through out this multi-generational plan. So, we must convince the average Joe. I'm sure the core of the space movement can archive this dream, but they will not have the strength to colonize every star in the universe. Today, we have an army of supports, convince the meat of the market, and we have an unstoppable force.
The Meat Of The Market
The solution, if there is one, is to enter a market to the enthusiastic cheers of those in search of the new, but to build a product/service that appeals to those in the middle. After the initial wave of enthusiasm, you hunker down and ignore those that first embraced you, obsessing instead on the needs and networks of the middle. It's a difficult balancing act, but it's the only one that works. ~ Seth's Blog
A message to the leaders of the space movement: Ignore us, but use our enthusiasm. Make a space vision that will meet the needs for the average Joe. Do not make a future that will only appeal to people like me because that future will never happen if it only appeals to me.
Reactions
I need to polish this idea. What do think? Should the evangelical space cadet be ignored?
Updated: July 7, 2009
