Dear Space Community, Welcome to the Dip

Last updated: July 8th, 2009

I was wandering about my local library when I stumbled across Seth Godin's The Dip. I love Seth Godin's blog, so I had to read this book. There is only one word to describe The Dip : enlightening. As I was reading it, questions started to flood my mind. Is the space program mediocre? Can anything on the cutting edge be mediocre? Should we give up on a mediocre space program? What would you define as a mediocre space program? What would you define as a exceptional space program? Was Apollo only beginner's luck; something bound to happen because is was humanity's first trip to the moon? Is this the worst period of the space age? Is the space movement suffering from a temporary setback that we will overcome if we keep pushing?

This post is my attempt to answer these question. Also, my head will roll because of this post. I want to create a discussion and the space community needs to hear this.

Apollo was beginner's luck. The public was stunned by entering the space age, it was new, it was fresh and it generated support because of this. Fear accelerated and fueled Apollo. During the time of Apollo, you where nearly a traitor if you didn't support NASA.The public fully supported space because of those reasons.

Apollo existed in a time where the motivations for space where different. Times have changed.

CNN has a segment called The Cafferty File where views give their comments on questions Jack Cafferty asks. The best comments are then read on air. On July 6, 2009, Mr. Cafferty asked "In light of the ballooning National Debt, what priority should the U.S. space program have?". The pro-space comments where very good and concise, all far better then my comment. But, the anti-space comments where interesting. Check them out here. Those comments can be summed up with the following statement: "the space program is a waste of money". The space program seems to be the scapegoat for the recession. What once inspired is now hated. That's not the end to the public opinion hole we have dug ourselves into. The National Space Society says, in regards to barriers to space habitation,

The general public is rapidly losing interest in space development: (1) because the pace of space development is frustratingly slow, especially when compared to incredibly fast pace of the home computer revolution; (2) because NASA is forced by taxpayer watchdogs to portray human space activities in the most boring manner; (3) because the real and exaggerated perceived risks of outer space frightens them; and (4) because little activity, planning, and public discussion occurs regarding private trips into space. ~NSS

“The dip is the long stretch between beginner's luck and real accomplishment” (Godin 18). Welcome to the dip, the time will be between Apollo and the next moon landings will be painful. Apollo was humanity's beginner's luck in space, welcome to the real space experience, humanity. Welcome to a frontier the demands a sustainable reason to explore. We can't even go to the moon based on fear, nationalism and new experiences. Commercial space will be a real accomplishment. An international effort in space will be a real accomplishment.

Trenches of Public Opinion

We might be breaking a few laws of physics because of how deep this hole is. But, I think Seth Godin's book gives us the reason behind this. “It's called Zipf's law, and it applies to resumes and college application rates and best-selling records and everything in between. Winners win big because the marketplace loves a winner” (Godin 7). Space habitation is in second place in terms of public support for a vision of the future. First place goes to human extinction. I need to do a study to prove this claim, but, from what I over heard in the halls of my classroom, more students are worrying about, thinking about and imagining the world ending on December 12, 2012 then students considering a future where space is settled. The 2012 "movement" is taking what should be our supporters.

But, in a way, the 2012 "movement" is the best vision of the future. "The consumer get[s] to decide [the best vision of the future], not [us]" (Godin 11). This is a problem because "now there are a million micromarkets, but each micromarket still has a best" vision of the future (Godin 11). The space movement is a micromarket, a market that is well saturated. There are a ton of micromarkets that we haven't touched. For example, I need to run a another study to prove my point, but, I think people are more likely to support the 2012 "movement" then the space movement because the bible portrays human extinction; there is no mention of space habitation in the bible. This is regardless of religion. NASA can not give out press releases and hope convince the public. We, the grunts of the space movement, have to go into as many micromarkets as possible and convince each one. We must become the best vision of space for each group of people on this planet. NASA can not convince our friends, we must convince our friends because we can only craft a message the appeals to the values held by each micromarket.

Reinventing a Movement

So many in the space movement are telling the public that we can not quit on space. But, “the opposite of quitting isn't waiting around. No, the opposite of quitting is rededication. The opposite of quitting is an invigorated new strategy designed to break the problem apart” (Godin 51). What I'm suggesting is scraping most, if not all of our strategy, and reinventing it without the influence of Apollo because Apollo was a fluke. In other words, the mindset that brought us to the moon will not bring us to the moon again.

Reactions

So, I stuck my neck out by posting this. I'm struggling with those questions I posted at the beginning. Was Apollo really a fluke? Can we get past the decline in public opinion? Should we reinvent the movement? Feel free to flame me.

Sources

Godin, Seth. The Dip. New York, Penguin Group, 2007.

Photo by adamhenning

Fear in Space Habitation Pt. 4

Fear will cause this movement to burn out.

Photo by hiromy

I love blogging, after writing a post I feel inspired. Like I really changed the world and effect someone. I feel my passion and love for space habitation in every click on my keyboard. But there have been exceptions. Posts that take the following form are exhausting: "ZOMG! We're all going to die, build a space colony. bsbifbuigrbusbuogsevYgvbuiop" After writing a post like this I feel bad, I have self doubt afterwards and feel anxious. I don't have that glorious feeling that I usually get after writing a normal, sane post. After writing a "ZOMG" post I feel like flopping on the bed and sleeping. After writing a really thought out, scientific and thoughtful post I feel like running a marathon. I hate writing posts based I fear but I have done them because it's easy. I can stand on my soapbox here and rant about human extinction without doing any research or checking my logic, even poor grammar and spelling helps a ranty argument. But those post or not my best work, those types of post get the least attention and none of them have comments.

 

My Stat teacher will hate me for generalizing a sample of one person to the world's population, but I feel my experience with delivering posts of fear can be applied the everyone. People sharing the idea of space habitation and explaining why we should have a space habitat will get sick of the draining activity of arguing without the glorious feeling that a logical argument gives the presenter. This will cause a fear based movement, no matter how much support it starts with, to die. I even see this in the 2012 "movement", I haven't seen or heard much of it. I use to get spam e-mails on this, the 2nd best blog on this idea hasn't updated since March 6th, I really think the whole 2012 thing is dying and so will the space habitation movement if we use fear. 

Fear in Space Habitation Pt. 1

I've noticed I've been posting alot on human extinction and I'm using that argument as my flag ship argument. That worries me. Fear has been studied and is generally considered a bad motivator. But, we can use fear in a moral and appropriate matter

"Collective fear stimulates herd instinct, and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd." ~ Bertrand Russell

I worry about those opposed to space habitation. When I use human extinction as an argument, I tap into people's fears and their fears about their children. The emotional response will be huge. People who I have convinced with the human extinction argument will target those opposed to space habitation as treats to themselves as their children. I don't want to cause someone's life to be ruined because of an idea.

"There is nothing to fear except the persistent refusal to find out the truth, the persistent refusal to analyze the causes of happenings." ~ Dorothy Thompson

People who support space habitation out of fear will not critically look at what he supports. If space habitation is completely disprove, fear will not allow a person to give up. Maybe there are other ways to prevent human extinction and I believe all space habitation supporters must be open minded, but if I use fear I could close the mind of anyone who follows me.

"You gain strength, courage, and confidence by every experience in which you really stop to look fear in the face. You must do the thing which you think you cannot do." ~ Eleanor Roosevelt

But, humanity really looking into the face of it's own mortally may help us deal with other times when we do not have a threat. Thinking about humanity dying off is scary, we have trouble thinking about our own deaths, but the thought of no one experiencing life is horrifying. Really take a breath in and imagine that was the last breath that will every be drawn in this universe. But, if we pull of what ever macro-engineering project that will ensure our survival, we will come out of this scary time a stronger and more confident species. Maybe talking about human extinction will make us stronger.

Fear is an emotion indispensable for survival. ~ Hannah Arendt

This is human however, this is what made us live till today. Fear is what caused the creep of technological advancement. Everything we do has a taint of fear in it. Going to school can be supported with fear of poverty, partying may be done out of fear of loneness and having a relationship may be done out of fear of missing something in life. Everything we do has fear and space habitation, consuming a large amount of resources will also consume alot of human emotion.   

Tell your heart that the fear of suffering is worse than the suffering itself. And no heart has ever suffered when it goes in search of its dream.- Paulo Coelho

However, we are already worrying about it. The 2012 fear wave is already causing alot of suffering. Maybe, since we are all ready started to have fear about human extinction, we can focus on some project, some dream and decrease the suffering. Because people running around in circles screaming "the sky is falling" is worse then supporting a dream with some fear. I rather have a rush to build a space colony then riots.

I have to consider this more, please, if you think I use fear too much, tell me.

The Fire of a Launch

This is a comment for the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee. The question is: What do you find most compelling about NASA’s human space flight activities and why?
Last updated: July 6, 2009
Passion, a mission, a purpose, a focus: this is what NASA's work does has given me and why I believe this nation, more then ever, needs NASA. The last two great periods for the US were wars, the cold war brought us unimagined achievements and WW2 brought unsurpassed industrial production. Those two times in history placed American as a leader in the world. But, war can no longer be our focus, for it threatens, not the lives of a few soldiers or a city or a nation, the all the human life on this planet. Humans are truly experts in war and the thought that war could lead to a day where the sunrise is not viewed by a human eye leads many to not focus on war. War can no longer be a passion because it today it means self destruction.

This is why we need a macro-engineering project. But not just any macro-engineering project. Yes, we can build a better city, a longer bridge, a higher building or a bigger canal, but they all lack something. It is just what we have done before, but bigger and they do not tap into something deep within our instinct. I believe humans are driven to protect and better the world for the next generation. Imagine a day when nothing, absolutely nothing, can wipe out humanity. Imagine a day where every star supports life. THAT, that is a purpose. Thinking of that gives life and energy to a person. Looking up everyday and seeing that there is nearly infinite possibilities and wilderness builds a huge fire in the heart. When I wake up, I first think of this possibility and when I want to stop studying or blogging or working on all I have to do, I look up. The fire will never die in me because of this; this mission has complete control over me. Space flows through my veins.

NASA shows this is possible, it shows that anything one dreams can happen. IT shows not even the huge gravity of Earth can hold back passion; can hold back a dream! Yes, NASA would be the worst, most inefficient corporation in the world, but they are not a corporation. Even human who sees a launch is lit like a candle out of the burning cloud of a shuttle escaping the chains of gravity and that will never, ever go out. This fire, in even one person, is well worth the cost of one shuttle flight, but this fire is not given to just one person. A launch lights the world! Once humanity is given this passion NOTHING will stop us. We will be an unstoppable species.

The beginning of the song used Star Trek: Enterprise intro places this nicely; it explains what goes through the mind of someone touched by a launch...

It's been a long road,
To get from there to here.
It's been a long
time,
but my time is finally here.

And I can feel a change in the
wind right now.
Nothing's in my way.
And they're not gonna hold me down
no more.
No they're not gonna hold me down.

'Cause I've got faith of
the heart.
I'm going where my heart will take me.
I've got faith to
believe.
I can do anything.
I've got strength of the soul.
And no
one's going to bend or break me.
I can reach any star.
I've got
faith,
I've got faith,
Faith of the heart.
~ Rod Steward - Faith of the Heart

I choose this part because we are not there yet. Humanity has put hundreds of years into this. Please, the dream of a day where the second part this this song, the part used in the intro, describes the mind set of those touched by the fire of a launch. That day will be when we leave this solar system. This is what NASA gives to us and justifies it's cost. Passion given to a human is invaluable.

Please, I, on my knees, beg you to not only keep the fire of the launch burning, but to expand it. Please, give what human space flight has awoken in me to everyone. Human space flight was the stepping stone, this allowed me to find the people to help me in my goals. Let NASA burn and pass it's fire across this demotivated nation. The thought of a human bathing in the light from another star will drive me, forever. Human space flight is NASA's passion and what it spreads.
Let humanity burn with passion!
Share your comment here.

The image that links to this article on the home page is by jurvetson.

Livin on Neumayer (a parody of Livin on a Prayer)

Last updated: June 6, 2009

This is a parody on Livin on a Prayer by Bon Jovi about humanity's dream of space habitation and a plea to not loss it. This parody present a has a strong human extinction theme. Neumayer (aka 9351 Neumayer) is a main-belt asteroid. 

--------------------------------------

 

Once upon a time
Not so long ago

 

Dinos use to walk on the Earth
meteor then strikes
Then wipes out the life...its sad, so sad
Mammals live to see a new day
evolving into man, we look into the dark sky
and dream

 

Because we've got to hold on to our old dream
it matters more then ever
If we make it or not
We've got rocketships and that's alot.
For life - we'll give it a shot

 

Chorus:
Whooah, we're half way there
Whooah, Livin on Nuemeumayer
Teach kids STEM and we'll make it - I swear
Whooah, Livin on Nuemeumayer

 

NASA then lands on the full moon
Dreams of a base; their budget gets cut
and dreams die - so close
Humans then stay stuck in LEO
some cry in the night
Muse whispers baby we'll make it, someday

 

we've got to hold on to our old dream
it matters more then ever
If we make it or not
We've got rocketships, but do we dream of space
well give it a shot

 

Whooah, we're half way there
Whooah, Livin on Nuemeumayer
Fund NASA and well make it - I swear
Whooah, Livin on Nuemeumayer

 

Livin on Nuemeumayer

 

Before the fire starts falling down;
When your saving life you'll give all that you got!

 

Whooah, we're half way there
Whooah, Livin on Nuemeumayer
Keep dreaming and we'll make it - I swear
Whooah, Livin on Nuemeumayer

 

Whooah, we're half way there
Whooah, Livin on Nuemeumayer
Keep dreaming and we'll make it - I swear
Whooah, Livin on Nuemeumayer

 

Whooah, we're half way there
Whooah, Livin on Nuemeumayer
Keep dreaming and we'll make it - I swear
Whooah, Livin on Nuemeumayer

Insulated Pandemic Research Facility

Last updated: May 30, 2009

I was playing Pandemic 2 and I realized something very scary. In the game Pandemic 2, you play a virus, bacteria or parasite with the goal of wiping out humanity. One of the sub-goals to achieve victory in the game is to prevent humanity from developing a vaccine by shutting down all the hospitals which serve as research facilities. Should this happen in real life and all our research institutions are unable to function, humanity is doomed.

 

What if there was a research institute insulated from anything that would happen on Earth? I see this as a huge benefit of a outpost in space. My idea is to have either an add on for the International Space Station or it's own space station. The living space of the researches would be separated from the labs; the lab would only be connected to the living area with a rope. Researches would spacewalk from the living area to the lab and the space suits would serve as biohazardsuits in the lab. Researches would keep their spacesuits on while in the lab so that they are sanitized when the spacewalk back to the living area. But, the lab will have an atmosphere so the samples stay alive.

This plan requires a space suit glove that can be used in lab work. Maybe researchers can used a work glove under the space glove that will still maintain the seal of the space suit when the space glove is taken off. But, a benefit of this system is that the lab's atmosphere can be evacuated if a sample is released. killing everything in the lab except the humans who are in spacesuits.

 

Well, what do you think? Is this a good idea especially in the light of the H1N1 virus? Is there someway a disease could shut down this lab?

Top 37 Reasons for Space Habitation

These are the top reasons I've found for space habitation. Some of these ideas are from spacequotes.com.

1.To provide a base for space mining
2.To allow for space manufacturing
3.To provide an environment for hazardous industrial processes
4.To use the hard vacuum of space for industrial applications
5.To use microgravity for industrial applications
6.To use extremes of hot and cold that are available in space for industrial applications
7.To reduce launch costs by building rockets in space
8.To use the sun's energy without the interference of the Earth's atmosphere
9.To have a place where we can move all industry
10.To use the materials found on other planets and asteroids
11.As an insurance policy against humanities extinction
12.To provide a base for planetary defense
13.As part of a multi-generational plan; to ensure that our great-great-great-great....-great grand children not only survive but prosper.
14.To have no regrets; to not miss the opportunity we have today to colonize space and not have the window close on us
15.To avoid having to face our sun dieing out with no way to survive; this is one task which we can not pull an one-nighter to finish, we need at act now
16.To ensure we past the critical point were we can either destroy ourselves or colonize space without destroying ourselves
17.To inspire humanity to go farther
18.To inspire children to pursue a STEM education
19.To give humanity a common goal
20.To give humanity a reason not to fight each other
21.To pull the global economy out of recession
22.To fulfill the need to explore
23.To advance science
24.To act on our knowledge
25.To live up to our commitment to those who have made our existence possible; we can not die out after so many generations of work and so much progress
26.To reduce our impact on Earth and it's resources
27.To again have an open frontier
28.To solve our most pressing problems
29.To gain a simpler, more independent, life
30.To create wealth
31.Reduce the pressures that limited land causes
32.To provide a field of almost infinite resources, thus reducing the sense of limited resources that causes humans to view each other as enemies
33.To reduce the pressures of overpopulation
34.To provide a chance for humanity to apply what it has learned from it's mistakes
35.To allow humanity's continued growth
36.To remove the psychological cap that a seemingly limited environment causes
37.To allow everyone to have a high quality of life


What reasons do you have for space habitation?Why should we make the huge effort to become a spacefaring species?
(Last updated: April 07, 2009)

Event Trees, MAD and Space Habitation

"If the Third Industrial Revolution is not a realistic forecast, perhaps it is the fate of all intelligent, self-aware species in the universe to blaze like a supernova for one brief instant of climactic glory before sinking into a final nuclear dark age. But I don't think so. I prefer to believe that there is more to the human race than that. We have come far. There are those among us who will not be daunted or denied a better future or an ultimate destiny among the stars. Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote in Politics, 'We think our civilization near the meridian, but we are yet only at the cock-crowing and the morning star.'" ~ G. Harry Stine, The Third Industrial Revolution, 1975 (1)

"Every civilization [in the universe] must go through this [a nuclear crisis]. Those that don't make it destroy themselves. Those that do make it end up cavorting all over the universe." ~ Physicist Ted Taylor, quoted by John McPhee in The Curve of Binding Energy, 1974 (2)

Recently, I got the most recent edition of the Defuse the Nuclear Risk newsletter and I thought of those two quotes. The newsletter pointed out that

“Recent headlines herald a new era in Russian-American relations as Presidents Obama and Medvedev call for new cuts in nuclear arsenals. Sen. Richard Lugar, an Indiana Republican and long-time arms control advocate, calls the developments "truly remarkable." While optimism is warranted, a gathering, but as yet unseen, cloud demands our attention if this ray of hope is to broaden into a new day where humanity is truly free of the nuclear menace”(3)

In the newsletter, there is a link to an article called Soaring, Cryptography and Nuclear Weapons. By becoming friendlier with Russia, we are increasing the distance between our position on the nuclear extinction event tree and nuclear extinction. This is a remarkable first step because we are taking action to minimize the chance of a nuclear conflict, since, with each step back on the event tree, we reduce the likelihood of nuclear war.

An event tree is a tree of the events that must take place before a catastrophic disaster can take place (4). For example, in the event tree for a house fire from a candle, the steps are:

1. Candles are available (If yes, continue to next step. If no, The house can not burn down from a candle)

2. A need for candles presents it's self (Example: Lights go out) (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)

3. The house occupant chooses to use candles to address that need (Example: Using candles instead of flash lights) (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)

4. Something to light candles is available (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)

5. The candles are lit. (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)

6. The candles are placed near a flammable surface on an unsteady surface. (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)

7. Occupants or house animals are allowed to walk past the candle. (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)

8. The candle is knocked over. (If yes, continue to next step. If no, the house can not burn down from a candle)

On so on till all those small events have proceeded to a burning house. What a friendlier relationship does is push us closer to the start point (complete peace with no tensions) and away from the end of the event tree (nuclear war). What is also does is move us past one of the nodes on the event tree that would lead to humanity not habitating space (Nuclear extinction). So, the less the political tensions are the more chance we have to become a spacefaring species.

Sources:

(1) and (2): Engdahl, Sylvia. Space Quotes. October 30, 2006. Lifeboat Society. April 4, 2009

(3): Hellman, Martin. "[NuclearRisk] email #12: Hope and realism" E-mail Newsletter. April 2, 2009

(4): Hellman, Martin. Soaring, Cryptography and Nuclear Weapons. October 21, 2008. Defusing the Nuclear Threat. April 4, 2009