Apollo Poked the Box but we are in a Dip

Seth Godin wrote a blog post about the "contradiction (it seems) between Poke the Box, which argues that you must consistently ship innovations to the market (and frequently fail), and The Dip [both by Mr. Godin], which argues that... the real success comes after the quitters have left the building".

The Apollo program, in fact the whole space race, poked the box in unique way. What they did back then is the biggest example of pushing pass the fear of shipping Seth Godin mentions.What's impressive about this is the cultural changes that took place to allow the space race. People, at one time, thought even short range rockets where impossible. Whole administrations on both sides of the race were against space programs at first.

We are now is the middle of the dip, the part where people quit because this is the most tiresome part of any endeavor. The excitement of the firsts has worn off. But quitting the multi-generational project that is space exploration "in the middle is dumb". We are on the verge of something epic. Every step through the brick wall that is holding humanity back from being space-faring will be awful, absolutely awful, but it will so be worth decades of effort on our part. Efforts that we might not see the fruits of, but efforts humanity will enjoy. No one said this would be easy.

Now is the hardest time in our progress towards space settlement, not our first baby steps, but our first steps as adults. We are allowed to fail over and over in the start, to keep poking at it until a species reaches its firsts in space. But once the project is committed to by showing the public successful baby steps, successful pokes, then, then we must not quit. Even as this struggle tempts us too.

Waiting and Space

The problem is that the public will not get excited and sacrifice for space that is not well defined; solid timeline defined.

Seth Godin, in his blog post titled Achievable Avalanche Opportunities, points out how people are willing to work on massive projects if they will bring a avalanche of rewards, but this reward and the path to that reward must be certain. This is where space programs and a space habitation project will run into a massive brick wall (of pain, death and humiliation). Right now, we are waiting until lightning strikes. For too often our arguments take the form of “when X happens we will have a space based economy”. The two critical points of the argument that provides the financial feasibility of manned space flight are lowering of the cost to access space and opening of a Maslow Windows. Yes, there is active work on launch costs and the Maslow Window opens soon, but, to the public, it is a waiting game.

Personally, a waiting game has never really gotten me to jump up and down with excitement. I think I’m safe in generalizing this.

Reactions

-Is space really a waiting game?

-If it is true that the people working on space activity can deal with the wait because of their passion, how can we make the public passionate about space?

Resources

Godin, Seth. "Achievable Avalanche Opportunities” 
     Seth Godin’s Blog. 8 September 2009.  Web. 8 September 2009.

     <http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2009/09/achievable-avalanche-opportunities.html>.

In Case You Skimmed

-There is a lot of waiting involved with space habitation, thus the public will loss interest in space habitation.

Public Relations, Herculean Efforts and Space Habitation

Seth Godin posted a thought on how enormity (something that is really horrible) is a bad marketing tool because people stay away from huge problems which are have horrible consequences. Mr. Godin pointed out how infomercials asking for donations starving and sick kids are ineffective because the problem is huge. If the problem was small, people would rush to help, but ending world hunger is a massive task.

So would space habitation. Based on Seth's post, I think the size of space habitation is pushing people away from the idea of space habitation. "If [we've] got a small, fixable problem, people will rush to help, because people like to be on the winning side, take credit and do something that worked." 1. There is no away we can make space habitation easier, it is going to be a macro-engineering project regardless of the planning. But, in order to increase public support, we can make the public fell like the pro-space habitation side is the winning side. We have to give our supporters credit and parade them as supports and we MUST prove that this will work. That's hard for us because space habitation is a multi-generational plan. Current supports can't stand on the finish line. Maybe we can give each generation a goal in the path to space habitation to reach, but we must give people the 3 things Seth Godin points out to get them to help to build space habitation.

Reactions

-Can people who will not be alive when the team wins still fell like they are working on something valuable?

Resources

Godin, Seth, “Enormity" Weblog entry. Title of Weblog. September 02, 2009. http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2009/09/enormity.html

In Case You Skimmed

• The amount of work needed for space habitation to work is scaring people away from space habitation.

Dear Space Community, Welcome to the Dip

Last updated: July 8th, 2009

I was wandering about my local library when I stumbled across Seth Godin's The Dip. I love Seth Godin's blog, so I had to read this book. There is only one word to describe The Dip : enlightening. As I was reading it, questions started to flood my mind. Is the space program mediocre? Can anything on the cutting edge be mediocre? Should we give up on a mediocre space program? What would you define as a mediocre space program? What would you define as a exceptional space program? Was Apollo only beginner's luck; something bound to happen because is was humanity's first trip to the moon? Is this the worst period of the space age? Is the space movement suffering from a temporary setback that we will overcome if we keep pushing?

This post is my attempt to answer these question. Also, my head will roll because of this post. I want to create a discussion and the space community needs to hear this.

Apollo was beginner's luck. The public was stunned by entering the space age, it was new, it was fresh and it generated support because of this. Fear accelerated and fueled Apollo. During the time of Apollo, you where nearly a traitor if you didn't support NASA.The public fully supported space because of those reasons.

Apollo existed in a time where the motivations for space where different. Times have changed.

CNN has a segment called The Cafferty File where views give their comments on questions Jack Cafferty asks. The best comments are then read on air. On July 6, 2009, Mr. Cafferty asked "In light of the ballooning National Debt, what priority should the U.S. space program have?". The pro-space comments where very good and concise, all far better then my comment. But, the anti-space comments where interesting. Check them out here. Those comments can be summed up with the following statement: "the space program is a waste of money". The space program seems to be the scapegoat for the recession. What once inspired is now hated. That's not the end to the public opinion hole we have dug ourselves into. The National Space Society says, in regards to barriers to space habitation,

The general public is rapidly losing interest in space development: (1) because the pace of space development is frustratingly slow, especially when compared to incredibly fast pace of the home computer revolution; (2) because NASA is forced by taxpayer watchdogs to portray human space activities in the most boring manner; (3) because the real and exaggerated perceived risks of outer space frightens them; and (4) because little activity, planning, and public discussion occurs regarding private trips into space. ~NSS

“The dip is the long stretch between beginner's luck and real accomplishment” (Godin 18). Welcome to the dip, the time will be between Apollo and the next moon landings will be painful. Apollo was humanity's beginner's luck in space, welcome to the real space experience, humanity. Welcome to a frontier the demands a sustainable reason to explore. We can't even go to the moon based on fear, nationalism and new experiences. Commercial space will be a real accomplishment. An international effort in space will be a real accomplishment.

Trenches of Public Opinion

We might be breaking a few laws of physics because of how deep this hole is. But, I think Seth Godin's book gives us the reason behind this. “It's called Zipf's law, and it applies to resumes and college application rates and best-selling records and everything in between. Winners win big because the marketplace loves a winner” (Godin 7). Space habitation is in second place in terms of public support for a vision of the future. First place goes to human extinction. I need to do a study to prove this claim, but, from what I over heard in the halls of my classroom, more students are worrying about, thinking about and imagining the world ending on December 12, 2012 then students considering a future where space is settled. The 2012 "movement" is taking what should be our supporters.

But, in a way, the 2012 "movement" is the best vision of the future. "The consumer get[s] to decide [the best vision of the future], not [us]" (Godin 11). This is a problem because "now there are a million micromarkets, but each micromarket still has a best" vision of the future (Godin 11). The space movement is a micromarket, a market that is well saturated. There are a ton of micromarkets that we haven't touched. For example, I need to run a another study to prove my point, but, I think people are more likely to support the 2012 "movement" then the space movement because the bible portrays human extinction; there is no mention of space habitation in the bible. This is regardless of religion. NASA can not give out press releases and hope convince the public. We, the grunts of the space movement, have to go into as many micromarkets as possible and convince each one. We must become the best vision of space for each group of people on this planet. NASA can not convince our friends, we must convince our friends because we can only craft a message the appeals to the values held by each micromarket.

Reinventing a Movement

So many in the space movement are telling the public that we can not quit on space. But, “the opposite of quitting isn't waiting around. No, the opposite of quitting is rededication. The opposite of quitting is an invigorated new strategy designed to break the problem apart” (Godin 51). What I'm suggesting is scraping most, if not all of our strategy, and reinventing it without the influence of Apollo because Apollo was a fluke. In other words, the mindset that brought us to the moon will not bring us to the moon again.

Reactions

So, I stuck my neck out by posting this. I'm struggling with those questions I posted at the beginning. Was Apollo really a fluke? Can we get past the decline in public opinion? Should we reinvent the movement? Feel free to flame me.

Sources

Godin, Seth. The Dip. New York, Penguin Group, 2007.

Photo by adamhenning

Humanity's Path to Space and Ithaca

Let us, for a moment, assume that all intelligent species follow the same developmental rules are we do. "Extraordinary benefits accrue to the tiny minority of [intelligent species] who are able to push just a tiny bit longer than most" (Godin 4). The infancy of a civilization's space age is filled with pain. There are deaths, there are inefficiencies, there are politics. An infant space age is highlighted by walking on a path with a blurry goal in mind and allowing progress on that path to make the destination clearer. No one, since humanity is in this stage of space development, can claim that know where progress in space will lead us, we can guess, but we can not know how space will benefit us until we become spacefaring.

It will, because the path to Ithaca, the path to the space age, is more important then the space age. This is what I feel created the dip we are in. Space's applications are slowly becoming clearer. We are slowly developing real reasons to go into space other then beat the communists/capitalists. We are reinventing the space movement as we learn lessons on this path. But, it's hard to push through obstacles on the path to Ithaca when Ithaca's existence is unconfirmed. This is what troubles the space movement now, we want to go to Ithaca, but we don't know what it is and the only way we will learn is traveling on the path to Ithaca. As soon as we have a reason to advance to the space age, it will be easy once again.

Now, the spot we are in on the intelligent species development chart, is where all others give up on space. We have to walk a path with no reasons to walk it, but, if we push past the point where we want to shut NASA down and burn down the shuttle, we will be an extraordinary species. This is also where species try to cheat at space and fail. One can not walk the path to Ithaca tentatively. One can not walk to path to Ithaca without investing the time to learn lessons and the common to acquire the items that enhance to path to Ithaca. They cheat with the space program which has less funds then what its people spend on beer. They cheat with a education system that fails at science, technology, engineering and math while expecting to enter the space age. This is why species fail to get past the space dip, this is why species fail to become spacefaring.

Reactions

This post is an idea that I couldn't really fit into my next post which will be Seth Godin's The Dip applied to the space movement and space habitation. But, this post has some of the same concepts. Is it appropriate to compare the poem Ithaca to humanity's path to becoming a spacefaring species?

Sources

Godin, Seth. The Dip. New York, Penguin Group, 2007.

Photo by Tambako the Jaguar

We Should Not Be Catered To

Evangelical space cadets, like me, should not be catered to. I had this idea after reading two of Seth Godin's blog posts: The paradox of the middle of the market and Fast in, fast out. Basically, people like me are not the market we have to convince to get space habitation off the ground. It is easy to get people like me excited about any idea in space. Yet, we need to average Joe to be excited about commercial space. But, there is also a bigger problem. I fear people like me will not be in the movement when the idea is less new.

Gone After The First Settlement

For this movement to live off evangelical space cadets, we will need about 10 generations of evangelical space cadets. This generation of evangelical space cadets is locked in for life, but that may be because we will not live to see humanity bask in the light of another star. I fear people like me will not exist when interstellar space flight is common and rocket launches are unimpressive. When the space field falls away from the cutting edge; when space stops being a symbol of the future; when this dream is achieved, then the space movement will loss it's current supporters if the evangelical space cadet supports the space movement because it's a dream and it's a new idea.

After reading Seth Godin's posts, I thought about why I'm in the field; why I have a passion for space. I watched a rocket launch on TV and was forever inspired by it. But, I don't think I would be in this field if I saw a rocket launch everyday. I was impressed by NASA and other space agencies. I think they are legendary. But, I don't think I would be found in the space field in the world of Star Trek, were space flight is average. In the world of Star Trek, I think I would be blogging about another, far off, dream.

Replacing The Cadets

This is a graph of percent of each group active in the space movement, verses number of generations. I think such a graph will look like this. Right now, generation number two is taking over the space movement. The type of people who could be evangelical space cadets will not become a space cadet in the space movement as we accomplish this dream. We can not assume the evangelical space cadet will be active through out this multi-generational plan. So, we must convince the average Joe. I'm sure the core of the space movement can archive this dream, but they will not have the strength to colonize every star in the universe. Today, we have an army of supports, convince the meat of the market, and we have an unstoppable force.

The Meat Of The Market

The solution, if there is one, is to enter a market to the enthusiastic cheers of those in search of the new, but to build a product/service that appeals to those in the middle. After the initial wave of enthusiasm, you hunker down and ignore those that first embraced you, obsessing instead on the needs and networks of the middle. It's a difficult balancing act, but it's the only one that works. ~ Seth's Blog

A message to the leaders of the space movement: Ignore us, but use our enthusiasm. Make a space vision that will meet the needs for the average Joe. Do not make a future that will only appeal to people like me because that future will never happen if it only appeals to me.

Reactions

I need to polish this idea. What do think? Should the evangelical space cadet be ignored?

Updated: July 7, 2009

Mediocre Dip

I just read Seth Godin's The Dip. I'm working on applying his thoughts to the space movement and humanity's pursuit of space flight. But, I ran into a problem. The book incorporates the idea of mediocrity; basically, if your mediocre, you should quit. There's the problem, can anything NASA does be mediocre? Can anything at the cutting edge be mediocre? We're building rockets and going to space, can that be mediocre in anyway? I think it can, I think you could build a mediocre rocket, but that's a tough claim to prove.

What do you think? Can you be at the cutting edge and be mediocre?