Infinite Regression

I had this idea after reading a few chapters of the book I'm reviewing, Space Mission Analysis and Design (It is really dense, it could take me a while to review everything). Basically, I feel one of the economic arguments for a moon base could be an infinite regression. Right now, moon bases have plans to become spaceports and spaceship factories. This is suppose to support voyages elsewhere. However, I ask why is it economical viable to go elsewhere. If the answer is to hop to the next place to get resources to keep hopping or to stop at the next spaceport, it is an infinite regression. This model will work for science exploration in space, but for businesses and to make a profit, you will have to justify going to elsewhere. If you do not have a great way to profit else where, the moon factory won't make money.

Now, a real reason that can be economically supported is launching satellites from a moon base. That could be a great reason to settle the moon.

SPC #18: Open Worlds

Welcome to the Sunday Paper Club. Every Sunday, this blog will offer an analysis of a paper on space habitation and other related topics. These are my opinions on a weekly scientific paper; basically I read the paper and write down my thoughts are I read it. They are subject to my perspectives and believes. I am open to debate, so if any reader believes I have misinterpreted something in a paper, please point it out. I'm only a student and I'm still learning how to read these papers and interpret them. All quotes and ideas are from the paper unless otherwise noted.

This week we are reviewing the paper Lunar Industries and Their Value for the Human Environment on Earth. I am using a new format based on the Lifehacker article Back to School: Keep an Academic Reading Journal.

Article Information

Title: Lunar Industries and Their Value for the Human Environment on Earth

Author: Krafft A. Ehrick

Date: August 1973

Journal: Acta Astronautica

Volume: 1

Issue: 5-6

Article Overview

Currently, humanity operates in a closed world system. We only extract resource from earth; we do not interact with another planetary body in a measurable way. However, an open world existence will give humanity to opportunity to grow endlessly, without damage to the biosphere. This is accomplished through the industrialization of space. Thus, the moon becomes critical because it sets the tone on how we use space. This paper shows use how we can exploit the moon in a profitable way and a path way to becoming a truly space faring species. 

Key/Interesting Quotes

“the information oriented and information controlled interaction with the lunar environment on the basis of synergistically integrating three aspects: extraction of lunar materials for local autonomy, cycling, and utilization of the "waste products" for industrial "export products", in order to supply orbiting installations and lay the foundations for the gradual evolution of a functionally integrated lunar and orbital industrial complex whose ultimate purpose is to reduce the ecological burden on the terrestrial environment, thus improving the human environment without reducing the level of productivity required by modern civilization.” Page 1

“We will never be able to develop or reach another inhabitable world unless we solve first the present crisis [population growth] on this one.” Page 1

“Open space is in many respects a more benign environment than the Earth's surface, to say nothing of the underwater environment”, in industrial applications Page 2

“…we do not live in a closed, isolated world—a ‘spaceship Earth’--but in an open world, on a planet that can be the future cockpit of the solar system.” Page 2

“…long-range thinking in the industrial world should raise its sights to an open-world development program whose central premise is the operative indivisibility of Earth and space” Page 3

“Openworld development means the upgrading of low living standards without destroying existing high living standards.” Page 3

“The central aspect of the extraterrestrial industrial expansion is the acquisition of new environments…” Page 7

“…the industrialization of the Moon will be crucial for the extraterrestrial industrial expansion” Page 7

“The open-world development concept places lunar operations into a new perspective by recognizing the lunar industrial potential and its value for the human environment on Earth. This philosophy adds the spirit of the industrialist to that of the explorer and scientist.” Page 8

“We must further think in terms of lunar production figures of thousands to hundred thousands of tons annually and of cislunar transporter capacities of several thousand tons, if we want to even begin making sense economically and being relevant to the needs of open-world development.” Page 8

A separate study “found that an investment of $150 billion over 30 years would provide a lunar industrial production and transportation capacity (within geolunar space) of at least one million tons annually of raw materials, semi-finished and finished products.” Page 9

“At the center of the lunar disc at high noon, the subsolar horizontal surface is offered 1.35 kw/m^2” Page 10

“The mare basalts are dark, iron-rich and relatively heavy. The anorthosite is a lightly colored, aluminum-rich, less dense material, a major rock-type of the lunar highlands. The lunar anorthosites are more depleted of potassium, uranium and thorium than the mare basalts.” Page 11

“…the Moon seems to be depleted in volatile elements and enriched in refractory elements [metals with high melting points]” Page 13

“even a shallow underground facility, or one covered with regolith, would be well insulated from the variations in solar heat input.” Page 14

“In the lunar environment we can apply strip mining techniques and expend vast amounts of cheap energy without ‘polluting’ the environment. Because this environment is "dead" there are no cyclic processes to consider.” Page 18

The moon’s purpose in space habitation is “the gradual reduction of the industrial burden on the terrestrial environment, thereby improving the human environment while the human industrial capacity continues to grow.” Page 19

“mining on the Moon does not mean going after a particular metal but rather extracting a large number of metals in proportion to their abundance and partly in proportion to the energy expended.” Page 25

Personal Response to the Paper

A while ago, I read the Hard SF article Can Space Colonization End Overpopulation? and I completely abandoned the argument that space habitation can help overpopulation. However, this paper may have proved that space habitation will aid over population indirectly. Population is limited by the resources available which in turn is limited by the amount of energy available. The moon provides an answer to both of these problems, industries can collect resources needed on Earth with abundant energy though solar and nuclear power.

However, I am not comfortable with one of the assumptions the paper makes. The paper assumes there is a seamless transition between the Earth and the moon. Due to the Earth’s gravity well and atmosphere , I feel this is not true. Lunar goods will need to be protected when they are brought down to Earth. Items from Earth while need powerful rockets. So, this paper is leaning towards a reusable system, which is extremely expensive to implement.

Questions Raised by the Paper

This paper assumes the moon is bone dry, now since NASA has confirmed water on the moon, how does the author’s argument change?

Can we be as carefree as the paper suggests when using resources in space?

Nuclear charges are used as the primary mining explosive in this paper, how do we over come the political obstacles to using nuclear explosives in space?

When do we see the return on the investment on the moon?

SPC #17: AIAA/SCTC Position Statement

Welcome to the Sunday Paper Club. (almost) every Sunday, this blog will offer analysis of a paper on space habitation and other related topics. These are my opinions on a weekly scientific paper; basically I read the paper and write down my thoughts are I read it. They are subject to my perspectives and believes. I am open to debate, so if any reader believes I have misinterpreted something in a paper, please point it out. I'm only a student and I'm still learning how to read these papers and interpret them. All quotes and ideas are from the paper unless otherwise noted.

This week we are reviewing the position statement Robust Implementation of Lunar Settlements with Commercial and International Enterprise. This statement is really a to-do list, so I suggest you all read the statement. Below is my reactions to the statement .

The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Space Colonization Technical Committee released these statements  When President Bush set a lunar base as NASA’s mission. I found it interesting that the committee said robotic missions can test technologies and methods needed to set up a lunar base. I did not expect that to be helpful, but that makes sense. The committee wants on Earth testing sites for a lunar base. But, we already see these simulations with FMARS.
This plan seems to be focused on energy development. Engaging nuclear and solar power sources on the moon, leading the He-3 power. This power search is for the development of a non-chemical way to escape the gravity of Earth. They also ask for many observation sites on the moon, hopefully turning the Moon into a hub for astronomy. I also found it interesting that the moon will have Mars base simulations. Hopefully, doing this will build momentum for space habitation.

The position also suggest to development of laws that allow for the construction of bases on the surface of the moon which is humanity’s property. Honestly, space law confuses me, so I’ll go into to this later.

SPC #7: Maslow Windows

Welcome to the Sunday Paper Club. Every Sunday, this blog will offer analysis of a paper on space habitation and other related topics. These are my opinions on a weekly scientific paper. They are subject to my perspectives and believes. I am open to debate, so if any reader believes I have misinterpreted something in a paper, please point it out. I'm only a student and I'm still learning how to read these papers and interpret them. All quotes are from the paper unless otherwise noted. All papers I review are available for free online.

This week we are reviewing the paper 21st Century Waves: Forecasting Technology Booms and Human Expansion Into the Cosmos.

Photo by Grant MacDonald

One of my favorite rebuttals for economic arguments against space habitation is the Maslow Window theory. However, when I asked a question on the blog Ask Me Anything, I found myself unable to explain this theory in depth. If I am going to continue to use this theory to support the space habitation argument, I must at least read the paper.

Basically, Maslow Windows are economic time periods that are similar to the 1960s, the height of the space race. Every major event in human history tends to be clustered in 56 year bursts. This theory suggests that economic booms are the driving force behind history's biggest wars and finest engineering projects.

An optimistic society is a more productive one. During times of economic prosperity, the people of the world tend to be happier. If they are happier they are more productive, plus they have the time and resources to dream. I can tell you right now, no major progress in space will be made during this recession. In my opinion, humanity is focused on the negative; we are a pessimistic society. I see extreme movements with negative opinions of the future, like the 2012 movement, forming and growing. If we think humanity is on a downward slide to it's doom, if we think that we will never return to the good old days, then we will not have the will to better ourselves.

I feel, right now, only the most passionate people are in the space field. You can only find people who where born to work in this field, supporting and funding this field. The general public simply doesn't care about space anymore. Dreams of space cities are crazy when your in a world stocking up emergency supplies for a end of the world date which was born out of fear for the future.

It is possible that this recession, a time where the space field is in danger, was born out of the lack of hope in the future. If you thought everything was going downhill, you would roll up into a ball and pull all your money into gold. Look at the news, just looking at this small sample of human event, it is very reasonable to conclude that we are all doomed. But, if you where to look at each industry, each area of human life in depth, there is reason for hope. "The critical factor is our belief about what's going to happen to us".

"Rene Dubos [said] [t]he most distressing thing about the modern world is not the gravity of its problems...it is the dampening of the human spirit...[o]ut very survival as a species depends on hope". I agree with and have first hand experience with this statement. I'm graduating from high school on Monday, yet the morale of my high school's class of 2009 is at an all-time low. My class has a sense of impeding doom; the child-free movement is strong in my class, 2012 is a favorite topic. My class does not have the ambition and passion and all the other characteristics of youth that a fresh, 18 year old, high school graduate should have. Let me give you an example, this is a discussion thread on Facebook. The names have been blacked out for legal reasons. My real name is Daniel Sims.

I see comments like this all the time. We are the youth and we are hopeless. Space dreams can not survive if they can't even seek refugee in our youth. The human spirit is crushed and with it, dreams of space. The Internet might be a factor in triggering the mindset change needed for space habitation. With the Internet, bigger audiences then ever are reachable. One person can try and comfort someone with a dark mind. The great events that happened today are easier to find.

Something I found interesting was the description of a Macro-engineering project: "although sometimes practical in purpose, they are often aimed at satisfying intangible needs of a spiritual or psychological nature and are highly inspiring". A mass space habitation project would be enough to push my classmates out of the dark frame of mind. Since it is a need, maybe, as we get darker, the support for any inspiration will grow. Just like how people start wanting to eat anything as they get hungry.

Maslow windows also call attention to the need for humanity to stop fighting each other. Maslow windows are often shattered by war. The reason we are not in an infinite time of abundance is because of the destruction war brings. "To a visitor from Mars, it must have appeared that the Western world in 1914 was on the brink of Utopia". WW1 brought us away from that joyous brink. Something that is stopping NASA from getting more funding is the Iraq war; if we weren't in Iraq, we might have more money for dreams.

Maslow windows are triggered by great technological developments. If someone where to develop a very cheap rocket, then humanity would less economic reasons not to go, and more reasons to go to space. Which we need to have because if we do not establish space habitations by 2025, according the the theory, we will have to wait till 2081.

Space Habitation as a Stabilizer for the Future

Space habitation will be a stabilizer for the future. Instead of fearing the future, we will look forward to it. I look forward to tomorrow and the change it will bring, but this is a rare opinion. So many people are caught up in maintaining the status quo. This is a problem, because the world is changing. I was frighten at first when I watched the TED talk Pete Alcorn on the world in 2200, but then I got even more hopeful.

Photo by ATIS547

We our population will drop as we reach the population cap. I can tell you now that the child-free movement is strong in my generation. It will alone increase as we hit that cap, are population will drop. If we do establish a space habitation, then the history humanity will not have been a slide down from the good old days. I'll argue that the days of space habitation will be on par with the days where humans lived in the Garden of Eden. At least comparable; giving humanity a sense that we are improving will make us a more confident specious. If humanity has a mindset that we are getting worst, then I doubt very many people would be motivated to do much.

Without space habitation, without the field of space, our future looks ugly. I dare you, I triple dog dare you to imagine a future without space. If you managed to do that, romantize it. It can be done, but space is a lot easier to get people excited about.

It will also allow people to prepare for the population decline. The moment space travel become affordable, everyone who can will move to the Moon or Mars. In my opinion, there will be a mass exodus. If money wasn't a factor in accessing space I would not find a single person who did not want to live in space... ok, their would be those who are sentimental about Earth and would stay and those who are hesitant because of safety, but that group would be outweighed by the people going.

In short, space habitation gives us a positive view of the future that will get us through the next 150 years.

PG&E is Providing Incentive for a Moon Base

The Wall Street Journal Blog has reported that PG&E "has asked state regulators for permission to sign a contract with stealth startup Solaren Corp. of Southern California, to purchase up to 200 megawatts of solar power beamed to earth from space". When I first read this breaking story I thought that has a huge incentive to build a moon base. According to NASA Technical Memorandum 102102, we can produce solar cells on the moon. Because there is less gravity on the moon, launching solar panals from the moon can be done at a much lower cost when compaired to launching solar panels from Earth. So, if Solaren Corp. is looking for a high profit margin, then they will reduce their costs as much as possible, whenever possible. Thus, Solaren Corp. has a motivating factor to create a moon base.